Climate Change in the Arctic

A resume of impacts and implications

The Arctic region, lying north of the Arctic Circle, covers an area of nearly 8 million square miles, with 70% of it being open or ice-covered ocean. Although only eight nations have territory or territorial waters in this region (USA, Canada, Russia, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Denmark due to Greenland), the Arctic holds considerable importance beyond its borders.

Some key points:

1.      Accelerated warming: The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. This rapid warming is primarily due to the melting of snow and ice, which exposes darker surfaces and increases solar energy absorption (the albedo effect). As a result, the Arctic experiences significant regional warming, leading to the continued loss of sea ice, glacier melting, and changes in the Greenland ice cap.

2.      Impacts on ecosystems and climate: The consequences of Arctic warming extend beyond the region itself:

o    Sea ice decline: The Arctic Sea ice cover has been shrinking, affecting local ecosystems and wildlife. Polar bears, seals, and other species rely on sea ice for hunting and breeding.

o    Global climate system: Melting ice contributes to rising sea levels, which affect coastal areas worldwide. Additionally, altered temperature and precipitation patterns can lead to more severe weather events.

o    Ocean circulation: As sea ice melts, it affects ocean currents, which can influence weather patterns and climate in distant regions.

o    Feedback loops: The Arctic’s warming triggers positive feedback loops. For example, as permafrost thaws, it releases stored carbon, contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and further warming.

o    Societal challenges: Indigenous communities in the Arctic face challenges due to changing ecosystems, infrastructure instability, and shifts in traditional practices.

3.      Global implications: The rapid pace of climate change in the Arctic affects climate change elsewhere. It threatens to undermine efforts to reduce emissions and limit rising temperatures to manageable levels. Addressing Arctic climate change is essential for the well-being of both local communities and the planet.

Sea ice

The IPCC has been concerned about the effect of climate change on sea ice. This primarily concerns the Arctic, which is largely a frozen ocean. Concern regarding Arctic sea ice focuses on two key aspects: area and thickness.

Between 1978 and 1996 the area of Arctic sea ice decreased by 2.9% per decade. In addition to sea ice area, sea ice depth is being investigated. Several navies deploy their submarines beneath the ice in the Arctic Ocean to monitor each other and to try to ‘hide’ from surveillance from satellites. One benefit from this military activity has been the measuring of ice thickness. At the height of the Cold War in the 1960s, Arctic sea ice was typically 4m thick at the centre of the ocean; that figure is now about 1.25 m. There is much confidence in predictions that Arctic sea ice will continue to shrink in terms of both area and thickness, albeit with occasional years of increase.

A major concern is that as the area of the Arctic covered by ice declines and the ice thins, a point will come when a threshold is crossed. After that, so much of the Arctic will be free of ice that increasing amounts of solar radiation will not be reflected but will be absorbed by the sea and lead to the warming of the ocean. In turn this will encourage further melting of sea ice and so an irreversible positive feedback loop operates.

Indigenous peoples

There are 4 million people living in regions bordering the Arctic Ocean. The indigenous peoples of the Arctic such as the Inuit and Chukchi continue to hunt and fish in the ocean. Their sustainable harvests of animals such as walrus and seals are greatly affected by patterns of sea ice as well as the weather. The potential disruptions to the Arctic marine ecosystem caused by thinning ice, decreasing ice cover and increasingly severe weather make hunting less reliable and more dangerous. Such activities are core elements to the indigenous societies, with their loss having profound impacts on culture and the ways societies operate.

Geopolitics

The Arctic region has a significant geopolitical importance. Two of the world’s superpowers, the USA and Russia, face each other over short distances. Tensions between competing powers have been increasing for some time. Claims over vast areas of the Arctic Ocean have been lodged by Russia, Canada, and Denmark. A country can claim the seabed up to a maximum of 280 km beyond its EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). This gives a country rights to the non-living resources, including oil, gas and minerals. The critical point is that a country must prove that the seabed is an extension of its continental shelf. Recently, Russia ceremoniously planted its flag on the submarine mountain chain, the Lomonsov ridge. This attempt to claim rights now lies with the UNCLOS, which will adjudicate.

Currently, militarisation of the Arctic is accelerating. All the nations bordering the Arctic Ocean have been investing in military infrastructure designed for Arctic operations.

Minerals

A significant incentive for countries to focus on the Arctic is its mineral wealth. As warming melts both sea ice and the tundra, exploration is revealing vast reserves. One estimate suggests as much as 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 billion m³ of natural gas are in the Arctic region. Global transnational corporations in the energy and mining industries are taking seriously the prospect of recovering these vast reserves. This a long-term project dependent on further technological advances and relatively high commodity prices, but it is unlikely to go away.

Transport

Connected to mineral exploration is shipping across the Arctic. Until recently the sea ice has made the Arctic Ocean impassable to shipping. Explorers had long tried to find and sail through the North-West Passage (NWP) from the northwest Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. In 2014 the first cargo ship, unescorted by an ice-breaking vessel, sailed through the NWP. Interest in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) across the Siberian coast is also growing. Shipping companies could reduce their costs significantly by using either of these routes. However, some costs rise, including the high fuel consumption of vessels sailing through sea ice. Shipping companies would have to pay more for crew experienced and trained for Arctic conditions, higher insurance and for an escorting icebreaker.

At the outset, most shipping is likely to transport resources out of the region. The Russian Yamal liquid natural gas plant will be a shipping point for the next few years along the NSR. It will be several years before ships are regularly crossing the Arctic, but if sea ice continues to melt at its current rate, then it is projected that by 2028, up to 300 ships will operate regularly in and across the Arctic Ocean.

Governance

Unlike the Antarctic, the Arctic does not have a comprehensive treaty protecting it from economic activities such as mineral and energy extraction. However, the Arctic Council, established in 1996, is developing a role in governing the region. The original members are Canada, the USA, Russia, Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Sweden, Finland, and Iceland. The diversity of indigenous peoples is represented on the Council. An indication of the growing international interest in the Arctic is the twelve observer states, which include the UK, China, and Singapore.

[Subsequent posts will examine the thawing of the permafrost, and the impact on rivers in Alaska. You can also see some interesting photo stories from the WWF Arctic Biodiversity Initiative (ABI) here.]