In the study of hazards, risk is defined as the probability of a hazard occurring and leading to a loss of lives and/or livelihoods. It is sometimes expressed as a mathematical equation:
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability ÷ Resilience
The risk of a disaster therefore increases as:
· the frequency or severity of a hazard increases
· people’s vulnerability increases
· people’s resilience decreases.
Risk can, however, take a variety of forms in the study of geography:
1. In physical geography, a number of processes threaten people and places. The German company Munich Re, which specialises in measuring risk and the insurance costs that arise, identifies eight physical events that cause risk: wildfires, thunderstorms, floods, winter storms, tropical cyclones, droughts and heatwaves, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. It states on its website ‘Each year across the world, natural disasters destroy assets running into multiple billions. Often, only a tiny proportion of this damage is insured. While the insurance gap has diminished in recent years in industrialised countries, there is still a considerable gulf in developing and emerging countries.’ Munich Re estimates that total losses because of natural disasters in 2021 amounted to $280 billion, of which only 40% was insured against.
2. In human geography, globalization has made places more interconnected, such that what happens in one part of the world quickly impacts other places, and across greater distances. The Covid pandemic in the early years of this decade illustrated not only the health risks to a wider population of an outbreak in one part of the world, but also lead to economic risks where supply lines for key products (or components) were disrupted leading to shutdowns and layoffs for people far away from the initial event. The financial crash of 2007/08 illustrates how monetary pressures in one part of the world, the USA, led to economic hardship for millions around the world. At a smaller scale, the use of the internet has facilitated technological risks, ranging from computer viruses, to hacking of public corporations and individuals, often with associated blackmail demands.
3. Political risks should perhaps be considered separately. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia has posed several risks to the world. In western Europe, Russia’s control of fossil fuel energies has long posed a risk to European economies (and to domestic supplies for the basic needs of heating and cooking). Following the invasion, energy prices have spiralled upwards, calls to boycott Russian energy have been met almost in full, and Russia itself has limited gas supplies to the west. Added to this is the risk of the war spreading to other countries, and further the threat of nuclear retaliation as Russia’s forces are pushed back from Ukrainian front lines.
4. ‘Future’ risks are also important. Geographers can predict what might happen in the future if current trends continue. This can be illustrated with reference to climate change. It is now widely accepted that climate-induced events such as extreme droughts, and/or floods, will become more severe, leading to policies of mitigation and/or adaptation (see my earlier Substack). In its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the IPCC warned that the world is ‘likely’ to reach the critical 1.5°C warming threshold by 2040. The IPCC is also ‘virtually certain’ of further permafrost melting. Note how the IPCC describes risk using ‘calibrated language’. Such language is used throughout the Report and needs some explanation. ‘Virtually certain’ is assessed at a risk (or probability) of >99%; ‘Very likely’ is assessed at >90%; ‘Likely’ at >66% and includes ‘More likely than not’ as being >50% [isn’t that self-evident??].
So, how can risk be managed? The following could be considered:
1. Risk mapping and/or planning: measuring the present-day phenomena (physical and human) that provide risk, together with warning of the risks that may ensue. This is what Munich Re specialises in.
2. Improving and developing better decision-making processes, at a variety of scales. At a world level, effective forms of global governance such as the UN, IPCC could play a greater key role.
3. Adopting a range of strategies to reduce risk: mitigation – seek to prevent the risk from arising in the first place, for example research into disease; adaptation – seek to be aware of risks and plan, and/or provide alternative approaches.
4. Perhaps the worst alternative? Shrinking back into your own space, being fatalistic and reducing connections with others – economically this could lead to de-globalisation and protectionism.
You can find out more about the risks that Munich Re investigates at Home | Munich Re .
Mitigation against flooding on the River Severn
Photo: Dave Throup